I don’t’ think Softbank made a mistake by investing in WeWork¹, If you are sitting on top of a $100 billion VC Fund, and you want to shop for startups., suddenly you would realize, that all of the ‘tech-startups niches’ are either too much saturated or dominated by very big players, leaving a little room for any disruption.

So where would you invest then., you have to look for startups, that are still looking promising and going through hyper-growth, so it made a perfect sense (as a late stage VC). And I guess it’s the very reason Softbank bought them out, It’s a great idea with too much growth.

However it ended up being a way more expensive deal for the Softbank than they would have anticipated and nearly lost $4.6 Billion as shown in their recent quarterly results, that reported a total loss of $6.5 Billion (Wework + Uber) www.bloomberg.com for the first time in 14 years, that’s a major setback to their aggressive investing strategy., and raising the successor to their first mega VisionFund.

Edited following the quarterly results posted by the SoftBank.

1. The only mistake Son made was, he invested in the startup not its founder. Always invest in founders first then their startup. This would serve as a great lesson for the VC community.

An 800 pound gorilla (DHL) tried to use SAP for digital transformation, and lost $1 Billion in the process. When in IMO they could have achieved all this under $10-$20 Million, only if they had hired 50-100 full stack Rails developers.

But neither do they know what is a full stack developer nor Rails. They just know SAP and Oracle. That their teachers taught them in the 90s. On a serious note, scaling is the major issue for a company of that size, But I guess Rails could have handled it easily. For instance most probably twitter runs on Rails too.

That’s brilliant, never been to Bangladesh though, but everyone who did, tells the same, too much traffic congestion. It’s the most densely populated country in the world¹. However I cant’ appreciate enough how their Govt is involved in developing the export sector and its infrastructure. In particular their garment export industry that was kicked off, a decade or so ago, by the Pakistani garment exporters who were facing at the time, crippling electricity shortage 8-10 hrs per day (now 1 or 2 hrs per day).

Bangladesh took advantage of the situation, offered them lavish terms to move there. But as soon as their own exporters caught up, they were left hanging in the middle, even the land/properties they had purchased won’t get sold, because everyone knew they are going back. A little brutal on the part of Bangladesh Govt., but very smart for their own good.

[1] Of the larger countries, Bangladesh is the most densely-populated with 1,252 people per square kilometer; this is almost three times as dense as its neighbour, India. It’s followed by Lebanon (595), South Korea (528), the Netherlands (508) and Rwanda (495 per km2) completing the top five. Source

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The government of the world’s second biggest garment exporter behind China said this week it would consider demands for an increase in the minimum wage, after clashes between police and protesters killed one worker and wounded dozens. The government said in September that the minimum wage for garment workers would increase by up to 51 percent this year to 8,000 taka ($95) a month, the first such increase since 2013. But union leaders say that increase will benefit only a small percentage of workers in the garment sector, which employs 4 million in the country of 165 million people. Low wages and trade deals with Western countries have made the sector a $30 billion industry accounting for 80 percent of Bangladesh’s exports.

Pakistan started to devalue its currency beginning from 2017 and until now it has depreciated more than 50% against the US Dollar, triggering a ripple effect across its export sector, and making it more competitive in low-wages industries. PKRUSD

With regard to garment industry, Bangladesh¹ had a per month minimum wage of $64 in 2018 versus $136 in Pakistan. However things have quite changed since then in 2019, Bangladesh has raised the wages to $95 and on the contrary Pakistan’s minimum wage per month declined to $107² due to massive currency devaluation.

However, the chances of the textile and clothing exporters increasing their share in international trade — both in terms of export value and quantity — despite emerging global opportunities are minimal because of the shrinking size of the industry. The industry’s capacity to produce exportable surplus has contracted substantially because of factory closures on the back of crippling energy shortages that hit the economy in the second half of 2000s, the previous government’s obsession for an overvalued rupee, lack of investment in new more efficient technologies and capacity, the controversial free trade agreement with China and so on.

However lower wages alone are not going to help Pakistan increase its global market share, due to lack of the production capacity as the above article stated. Government must work toward attracting foreign investment in the textile and garment sector., as well as encourage local industrialists by facilitating them with cheaper energy prices, and waiving duties and taxes on the import of textile machinery and its parts altogether.

1. A historical fact, Bangladesh was known as East Pakistan until the 1971 fiasco that led to division of the two parts. West Pakistan is now simply referred to as Pakistan.

2. The data is based on the source Renaissance Capital and adjusted to open market exchange rates, it may not be 100% accurate nevertheless provides a reasonable guidance.

The total exports to the USA during July-February (2018-19) were recorded at $2684.394 million against the exports of $2529.610 million during July-February (2017-18), showing an increase of 6.11 percent during the period, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This was followed by United Kingdom, wherein Pakistan exported goods worth $1171.950 million against the exports of $1161.099 million last year, showing growth of 0.93 percent. China was the at third where Pakistan exported products worth $1150.523 million during the current fiscal year against the exports of $1107.004 million during last fiscal year, showing increase of 3.93 percent, SBP data revealed. Among other countries, Pakistani exports to Germany stood at $869.763 million against $909.251 million during last year, showing decline of 4.34 percent while the exports to Afghanistan were recorded at $777.292 million against $1008.555 million last year, the data revealed.

I guess, it most likely would be due to trade war and tariff on the chinese goods as well as over 30% currency depreciation¹ against the US Dollar in the past year, rather than our Govt., doing anything to help the local industries.

Difference in % YoY Monthly Basis. Exports started to trigger after 2017, when Govt decided to devalue Rupee against US Dollar over 50% since 2017. PKRUSD

Pakistan’s Total Exports expanded 19.1 % YoY in Jun 2019, compared with an increase of 24.1 % YoY in the previous month. Pakistan’s Total Exports Growth data is updated monthly, available from Dec 1988 to Jun 2019, with an averaged rate of 12.9 %. The data reached an all-time high of 53.4 % in May 1991 and a record low of -19.2 % in Sep 2015. CEIC calculates Total Exports Growth from monthly Total Exports. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics provides Total Exports, FOB, in local currency.

1. The devaluation of economy / thefrontierpost.com