Ruma Paul

The government of the world’s second biggest garment exporter behind China said this week it would consider demands for an increase in the minimum wage, after clashes between police and protesters killed one worker and wounded dozens. The government said in September that the minimum wage for garment workers would increase by up to 51 percent this year to 8,000 taka ($95) a month, the first such increase since 2013. But union leaders say that increase will benefit only a small percentage of workers in the garment sector, which employs 4 million in the country of 165 million people. Low wages and trade deals with Western countries have made the sector a $30 billion industry accounting for 80 percent of Bangladesh’s exports.

Pakistan started to devalue its currency beginning from 2017 and until now it has depreciated more than 50% against the US Dollar, triggering a ripple effect across its export sector, and making it more competitive in low-wages industries. PKRUSD

With regard to garment industry, Bangladesh¹ had a per month minimum wage of $64 in 2018 versus $136 in Pakistan. However things have quite changed since then in 2019, Bangladesh has raised the wages to $95 and on the contrary Pakistan’s minimum wage per month declined to $107² due to massive currency devaluation.

However, the chances of the textile and clothing exporters increasing their share in international trade — both in terms of export value and quantity — despite emerging global opportunities are minimal because of the shrinking size of the industry. The industry’s capacity to produce exportable surplus has contracted substantially because of factory closures on the back of crippling energy shortages that hit the economy in the second half of 2000s, the previous government’s obsession for an overvalued rupee, lack of investment in new more efficient technologies and capacity, the controversial free trade agreement with China and so on.

However lower wages alone are not going to help Pakistan increase its global market share, due to lack of the production capacity as the above article stated. Government must work toward attracting foreign investment in the textile and garment sector., as well as encourage local industrialists by facilitating them with cheaper energy prices, and waiving duties and taxes on the import of textile machinery and its parts altogether.

1. A historical fact, Bangladesh was known as East Pakistan until the 1971 fiasco that led to division of the two parts. West Pakistan is now simply referred to as Pakistan.

2. The data is based on the source Renaissance Capital and adjusted to open market exchange rates, it may not be 100% accurate nevertheless provides a reasonable guidance.

The total exports to the USA during July-February (2018-19) were recorded at $2684.394 million against the exports of $2529.610 million during July-February (2017-18), showing an increase of 6.11 percent during the period, according to State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). This was followed by United Kingdom, wherein Pakistan exported goods worth $1171.950 million against the exports of $1161.099 million last year, showing growth of 0.93 percent. China was the at third where Pakistan exported products worth $1150.523 million during the current fiscal year against the exports of $1107.004 million during last fiscal year, showing increase of 3.93 percent, SBP data revealed. Among other countries, Pakistani exports to Germany stood at $869.763 million against $909.251 million during last year, showing decline of 4.34 percent while the exports to Afghanistan were recorded at $777.292 million against $1008.555 million last year, the data revealed.

I guess, it most likely would be due to trade war and tariff on the chinese goods as well as over 30% currency depreciation¹ against the US Dollar in the past year, rather than our Govt., doing anything to help the local industries.

Difference in % YoY Monthly Basis. Exports started to trigger after 2017, when Govt decided to devalue Rupee against US Dollar over 50% since 2017. PKRUSD

Pakistan’s Total Exports expanded 19.1 % YoY in Jun 2019, compared with an increase of 24.1 % YoY in the previous month. Pakistan’s Total Exports Growth data is updated monthly, available from Dec 1988 to Jun 2019, with an averaged rate of 12.9 %. The data reached an all-time high of 53.4 % in May 1991 and a record low of -19.2 % in Sep 2015. CEIC calculates Total Exports Growth from monthly Total Exports. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics provides Total Exports, FOB, in local currency.

1. The devaluation of economy / thefrontierpost.com

Chaim Gartenberg / Verge

Google is said to be starting by shifting some of the Pixel 3A’s manufacturing to the Vietnam plant, with the goal of moving production there before the end of this year. New products are still expected to be built in China for now, which likely will include the forthcoming Pixel 4. Google isn’t the only company eying Vietnam for phone production: an earlier Nikkei report notes that Apple may be looking to shift between 15 to 30 percent of iPhone production to Vietnam and India to avoid tariffs, too.

Honestly I had been skeptical of Vietnam’s production and infrastructure capabilities. But it seems like they can still produce / assemble high-end consumer electronics too. Along with Malaysia, Taiwan and India to avoid tariffs. However as the article noted, the next iteration of Pixel Phones 4, still to be built in China.

Apple has asked its major suppliers to evaluate the cost implications of shifting 15% to 30% of their production capacity from China to Southeast Asia as it prepares for a fundamental restructuring of its supply chain, the Nikkei Asian Review has learned.